Behavioral economics & insurance

The hidden costs of cognitive bias.

Five cognitive biases that silently erode profitability across the P&C industry, and how data-driven underwriting neutralizes each one.

LAYERSDEFAULT VIEWLegacy modelSLOPE · FUEL · ACCESSONUpdated model30+ VARIABLESOFFParcelsBASE MAPON
Part 1 of 5

The Status Quo Bias Is Costing Insurers Millions

Why the safest-feeling decision is often the most expensive one

Insurers default to legacy models not because they're better, but because switching feels risky. Behavioral economics explains why, and what it's costing the industry.

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Blanket moratorium: the whole ZIPWhere the risk actually isInsurable, blocked anyway
Part 2 of 5

How Loss Aversion Creates Self-Defeating Moratoriums

The $2 billion problem hiding in your underwriting restrictions

After every major wildfire, carriers rush to impose blanket moratoriums. Loss aversion drives the decision, but the data shows it destroys more value than it protects.

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FIRST SCOREREVIEW 1REVIEW 2REVIEW 3The first score seenWhat that year’s evidence saysWhere the review lands
Part 3 of 5

The Anchoring Effect: Why Your First Data Point Ruins Everything

How initial risk scores create invisible distortions in portfolio quality

The first number an underwriter sees becomes an anchor that distorts every subsequent judgment. Understanding this bias is the key to building better risk selection processes.

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Last season: vividLong-run base rate: unchangedEarlier seasons, already forgotten
Part 4 of 5

Availability Bias: Why Insurers Overreact to the Last Catastrophe

The cognitive trap that makes your portfolio swing like a pendulum

After every major catastrophe, the entire industry pivots. But data shows this reactive pattern, driven by availability bias, creates portfolio volatility that destroys long-term profitability.

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SAME RISKAlready in the book: renewedNew application: declined
Part 5 of 5

The Endowment Effect: Why You Overvalue Your Existing Book

Your portfolio isn't worth what you think, and that's costing you growth

Carriers consistently overvalue their existing book of business and undervalue new opportunities. The endowment effect explains why, and reveals a path to better portfolio construction.

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